Immigration is not long-term solution

1888 cartoon in Puck attacks businessmen for welcoming large numbers of low paid immigrants, leaving the American workingman unemployed. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I am an immigrant to Singapore, and this would be one article that applies to me... or maybe not...
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Jan 07, 2013
by Peter Heng Teck Wee

Most Singaporeans are Xth-generation immigrants. My grandparents originated from China, making me a third-generation Singaporean, and I am grateful for the contribution of immigrants to our fledgling nation.

However, I am not convinced that continuing immigration is a long-term solution for our socio-economic problems. First, we must ask if we can count on new immigrants to commit to Singapore.

Paddler Li Jiawei's return to Beijing, reported in "A grateful Li bids farewell" (Dec 28), serves as an example that immigrants may see Singapore as a place to eke out a living and not as their hinterland.

It is difficult to fault them for this, given that our tiny island cannot offer the security that underpins the concept of a hinterland.

Even if they stay for the long term, it is dangerous to rely on them to plug our demographic holes.

Integrating new immigrants who have not gone through national education or National Service is a trial-and-error process.

They are not immune from growing old, nor are they exempt from having dependents. Unlike Singaporeans, the elderly dependents of new immigrants have no economic safety net in the form of Central Provident Fund savings.

New immigrants may relieve immediate problems such as labour shortages, but it is a form of kicking the can down the road.

We have learnt that such relief comes at the price of productivity stagnation or the gradual displacement of Singaporeans.

If we are not careful, we will create a situation where ever greater numbers of "foreign talent" are needed to offset an ageing, unproductive population. Already, many top jobs at multinational corporations and financial institutions go to new immigrants.

Let us also ask ourselves if building ever more new towns and expressways to absorb a fast rising population is what we stand for.

How many more trees and graves will be given up in the name of development before we realise that what fills this nation's stomach may not be good for its heart? Certain things, such as our heritage and identity, are priceless.

We should think twice before sacrificing these in striving to be a hub for everyone and everything. In the new year, Singaporeans should ask: What is the kind of legacy we wish to pass to our children?


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Taken from TODAYOnline.com; source article is below:
Immigration is not long-term solution

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No Smoking in China

Image via WikipediaWill they really put a tab on smoking, while they generate tons of money from its sales?
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1 May 2011

By Chris HoggBBC News, Shanghai

A ban on smoking in public places has come into force in China - home to a third of the world's smokers.

The move is aimed at curbing the number of deaths from smoking-related diseases, running at a million a year.

But the new rules have been criticised because they do not include punishments for those who choose to ignore them.

Business owners often resent efforts to force them to ban smoking on their premises, because many customers do not like the rules and complain.

The new rules prohibit smoking in places like restaurants, hotels, railway stations or theatres, but not at the office.

Employers will be obliged to warn staff of the dangers of smoking but not to forbid them from lighting up at their desks.

Resistance

Shanghai imposed similar rules a year ago, but people do not seem to take much notice of them.

Often you find people smoking at the next table while you are eating your meal or having a drink in a bar.

The problem is the regulations do not specify punishments for businesses or individuals who flout them.

It appears that many Chinese people are unaware of the dangers of smoking. Research suggests only one in four knows the harm cigarettes or second-hand smoke can cause.

Officials say they have to try to persuade people not to smoke to try to reduce the numbers dying from smoking related diseases.

At the same time though the government makes a lot of money from the sales of cigarettes by the state-owned firm that makes and sells all tobacco products throughout the country.

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Taken from bbc.co.uk; source article is below:
China ban on smoking in public places comes into force

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FOREIGN FIRMS FEEL UNLOVED

Image via Wikipedia

Is China already removing its 'braces' before it can walk? Just my thoughts...

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BEIJING - A growing number of foreign businesses in China feel shut out under new government policies promoting homegrown technology, according a survey released yesterday.

Feeling increasingly unwelcomed to participate and compete in the Chinese market was 38 per cent of foreign firms questioned by the American Chamber of Commerce. That marks a 12 percentage-point rise from the last survey taken just a few months before. Over that period, the government has increasingly steered business toward state-owned companies, ostensibly as part of efforts to boost innovation among Chinese firms.

The chamber's data, gathered earlier this year from 203 companies, portrays a steadily worsening environment for foreign companies in China over the past three years. The disquiet was most pronounced among foreign firms specialising in high-tech and information technology, with 57 per cent saying they felt negatively affected by government policies. In that sector, 37 per cent of foreign companies said they were losing sales as a result of Chinese government policies. Such sentiment has increased following the government's launch of a 4 trillion yuan ($820 billion) stimulus package in late 2008 designed to help China rebound quickly from the global crisis.

Foreign direct investment in China rose at its slowest rate in seven months in February, up 1.1 per cent from a year earlier.

The chamber's report comes amid a dispute over China's currency controls. Some United States lawmakers have demanded to have China declared a currency manipulator by the Treasury Department, possibly mandating trade sanctions. AP

From TODAYOnline.com, Tuesday, 23-Mar-2010
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US becoming unwelcome in China?

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US firms feel increasingly unwelcome in China: survey
Posted: 22 March 2010 1131 hrs

BEIJING: A growing number of American businesses feel unwelcome in China because of what they see as discriminatory government policies and inconsistent legal treatment, according to a survey released Monday.

The American Chamber of Commerce in China asked 203 member companies if they felt unwelcome to participate and compete in China's market, with 38 per cent saying they did, up from 26 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and judicial treatment topped the list of concerns for American businesses, the survey said.

Respondents also blamed what they view as a push by Beijing to squeeze foreign technology companies out of the lucrative government procurement market.

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Beijing skyline

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"The AmCham-China survey shows that US companies believe they face product discrimination in state-owned enterprise purchases, as well as in government procurement," a statement accompanying the survey results said.

The survey was released as the trial of four employees of Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto - including an Australian citizen - on bribery and trade secrets charges opened in Shanghai.

The four defendants were arrested last July during contentious iron ore contract negotiations that later collapsed, and after Rio snubbed a near 20-billion-dollar cash injection from state-run Chinese mining firm Chinalco.

The trial has strained Beijing's relations with Canberra and raised concerns about doing business in China.

The survey also comes as US Internet giant Google has threatened to leave China, citing cyber attacks and censorship, and with Sino-US ties inflamed over a range of contentious issues including China's currency policy.

Critics say China keeps the value of its yuan artificially low, making its exports cheaper and thus more competitive on world markets.

- AFP/sc

From ChannelNewsAsia.com; see the source article here.

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White House on China-Google case...

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White House 'disappointed' no Google, China deal
Posted: 23 March 2010 0627 hrs

WASHINGTON - The White House said Monday it was "disappointed" that Google could not reach a deal with Beijing, after the Internet giant announced it was no longer censoring its search engine in China.

"We are disappointed that Google and the Chinese government were unable to reach an agreement that would allow Google to continue operating its search services in China on its Google.cn website," National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said in a statement.

"Google made its decision based on what it believed was in its interest," he added, noting the White House respects the search engine's decision and was informed of it before the company made its announcement to the public.

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The Google logo on the rooftop of the Google China headoffice building in Beijing

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President Barack Obama's administration has previously raised its concerns about the matter with the Chinese government, Hammer recalled, stressing that US-China ties were "mature enough to sustain differences."

The administration is "committed to Internet freedom and... opposed to censorship," he added. "While we seek to expand cooperation on issues of mutual interest with China, we will candidly and frankly address areas of disagreement."

In announcing its decision to stop censoring its search engine in China and redirect mainland Chinese users to an uncensored site in Hong Kong, Google said it intended to continue research and development work in China and maintain a sales presence there.

China was quick to criticize the company for being "totally wrong" and having "violated its written promise," according to the state-run Xinhua news agency, which cited an official in charge of the Internet bureau of the State Council Information Office.

Google's lifting of censorship on Google.cn came a little over two months after the Mountain View, California-based company said it had been the victim of cyberattacks originating from China.

- AFP /ls

From ChannelNewsAsia.com; see the source article here.

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China Wares Then, China Moon Now

Image via Wikipedia

US DECISION LEAVES CHINA SHOOTING FOR MOON

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BEIJING - China aims to land its first astronauts on the moon within a decade at the dawn of a new era of manned space exploration - a race it now leads thanks to the United States decision to drop its lunar programme.

US President Barack Obama earlier this month said he planned to drop the costly Constellation space programme, a budget move that would kill off future moon exploration if it is approved by Congress.

In contrast, China has a fast-growing human spaceflight project that has notched one success after another, including a spacewalk by astronauts in 2008, with plans for a manned lunar mission by around 2020.

The turnaround is viewed as yet another example of the Asian power's rising profile and technical prowess.

"Overall, China is behind the US in technology and in actual presence in space - the US operates dozens of satellites, the Chinese only a few," said Mr James Lewis, of the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

"The real concern is the trend: China's capacities are increasing while the US, despite spending billions of dollars, appears to be stuck in a rut."

The Americans have achieved the only manned lunar missions, making six trips from 1969 to 1972.

But China has been gaining in the space race after launching a manned programme in 1992, and sending its first astronaut into space in 2003.

Only Russia and the US had previously put a man into space independently.

China aims to launch an unmanned rover on the moon's surface by 2012 ahead of the manned lunar mission a decade from now.

"It is not a very expensive space programme but it is relatively well worked out in terms of autonomy, efficiency and independence," said Ms Isabelle Sourbes Verger, a France-based specialist on the Chinese space programme.

Some experts have questioned Beijing's timeframe for landing a man on the moon, but Mr Peter Cugley, a China specialist at the non-profit research centre CNA in the US, says the actual timing is not that relevant.

"Even if a PRC (Chinese) manned lunar landing doesn't happen in the timeframe initially established, the technical expertise gained and boost in national prestige is what the Chinese Communist Party is most interested in," he said.

China sees its space programme as a symbol of its global stature, growing technical expertise, and the Communist Party's success in turning around the fortunes of the formerly poverty-stricken nation.

Experts see its push for the moon, while Washington backs off, as further confirmation of its emergence as a superpower. "I see it as a confirmation of America's decline," said Mr Lewis.

China also has pursued its space ambitions efficiently. The Constellation programme had already cost US$10 billion ($14.1 billion), or nearly 10 times more than the entire Chinese space programme, according to official data.

Mr Fu Song, the vice dean of the School of Aerospace at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said Mr Obama's decision was unlikely to spur China to ramp up its space programme, saying its development would remain on a steady course.

But Beijing has other significant Asian competitors to reckon with as it vies to become the second nation to put a man on the moon.

India landed a lunar probe in 2008, and a top official said last month it was targeting a manned space mission in 2016. Japan, meanwhile, launched its first lunar satellite in June last year. AFP

From TODAY, Monday, 22-Feb-2010

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A future in technology and healthcare

CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

China will have to rethink its growth strategy if is to be able to sustain economic growth.
AP

STUNG by the global economic crisis, China is searching for a more stable growth model. Vice-president and portfolio manager Jing Ning is responsible for covering Chinese equities and building BlackRock's Chinese equity products and research capability. She offers some thoughts as to the future investment opportunities in China.

China's economy has enjoyed explosive growth over the past two decades. Its stock markets have rallied along with this growth, delivering huge returns to foreign and domestic investors alike, with the MSCI China growing over 420 per cent since January 2003.

The foundations of this growth lay in the confluence of several crucial factors; an enormous pool of cheap labour, an inexpensive currency, a massive Western appetite for consumption and the availability of easy credit. At this point, when China's cost advantages are dissipating, its currency is under pressure to appreciate, Westerners have rediscovered the value of thrift and the credit binge has so spectacularly collapsed, a discerning investor may well ask if China's economic boom, and the opportunities it offered, have come to an end.

China at a cross-roads

The events of the past year have illustrated that China needs a more stable growth model. Its export market has been badly hit and only an unprecedented injection of 4 trillion yuan ($828 billion) has sustained its economic growth. China's pockets, although deep, are not infinite. A new driving force is needed if the economy is to grow.

The good news is that the next catalyst for growth may already be emerging. Two forces - domestic consumption and higher productivity - combined have the ability to be every bit as powerful as the export-driven model before it.

The rise of the middle class

China's workers are aspiring to middle-class comforts and increasingly have the means to gain them. Over the next 15 years, it is estimated that the proportion of the Chinese population with incomes over US$3,000 ($4,238) pa will rise from less than 20 to almost 80 per cent. This dollar figure is crucial - evidence suggests that above US$3,500 pa spending on the discretionary comforts of middle-class life - a washing machine, an air conditioner, a small car - really takes off. Significantly, this rate of growth is predicted to be faster than that of Brazil, Russia or India, its "Bric" peers.

Moving up the value chain

Research and development budgets in China have doubled between 1996 and 2005. The establishment of high quality medical research centres in China in recent years shows increasing sophistication. China's government has recognised that an emerging market can easily replicate a low-cost export model. It has the ability to build some intellectual capital and move into more sophisticated areas. This is harder to replicate and ultimately leads to more stable growth.

As always, reward is accompanied by risk and China's move to continued growth with more stability must be careful and controlled.

A delicate balancing act

In the short-term, the government is attempting a delicate balancing act. It aims to achieve annual economic growth near 8 per cent to absorb 20 million new workers each year and maintain social stability. It has only maintained this rate in the past three quarters via a flood of cheap credit.

However, much of this credit is funding speculation in stocks and property, raising the possibility of short-term assets bubbles. Economic overheating is also a concern as inflationary pressures build. The government is wary of both and has begun to "talk down" the market in recent weeks with some signs of success.

The demographic sweet spot ends

China needs to contend with an ageing population and the burden it places on those working. The government's major challenge is to establish adequate social security systems over the next 30 years to ensure that an aging population is cared for without stymieing growth.

The next Big Thing

The government's commitment to this new growth path can been seen in the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package that pulled China through the global recession. While the spending on rail, housing, roads and other hard infrastructure was well publicised, the soft elements attracted fewer headlines. These elements, such as investment in medical, education, ecology, technical innovation and regulation yield less now, but are arguably more important to sustainable growth in the long-run. The inclusion of these in the package demonstrates that, even as China's government was scrambling to avert a short-term crisis, it still had one eye fixed on the new path for China's growth.

We believe that the combination of consumption and productivity can be every bit as powerful as the export-led boom of the past three decades. Domestic consumption only contributed 35 per cent to GDP last year - the potential for expansion is huge. Where the investment opportunities in the past few decades were in exporting manufacturers, going forward it could be the high-end clothing, the domestic automobile and the private education sectors which deliver huge gains. The technology and healthcare sectors are still in the early stages of infancy - the gains in these sectors still lie in the future.

From TODAY, Business – Thursday, 17-Sep-2009

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What weight do academic qualifications carry in PR applications?

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Ong Dai Lin

dailin@mediacorp.com.sg

FOR a skilled worker, how much weight does the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) place on his educational qualifications when approving his permanent resident application?

This was the question raised by Judge of Appeal V K Rajah during an appeal hearing involving China national Lin Shuliang. The latter is appealing against his two weeks' jail sentence after he pleaded guilty to lying to the ICA.

Lin, 38, submitted a permanent residency application form to ICA in July last year, claiming that he had graduated from the Fuqing San Shan Middle School in Fujian province and also attached a school-leaving certificate with his application.

ICA found the information to be false. Lin had only completed half of his studies in the school and did not graduate from it.

Lin came to Singapore in 1993 and was employed as a construction worker. He later rose to become the boss of two building firms.

During yesterday's hearing, Justice Rajah said in Lin's case, it is "quite clear that the basis for any approval of his status will be based on his skills more than the educational qualifications".

Justice Rajah said that for him to assess the severity of Lin's offence, he needs to know how much weight the ICA places on education qualifications when assessing a person's permanent resident application.

"The more material it is, the bigger is the sin."

Justice Rajah has instructed the prosecution to get more information from ICA on the criteria it uses to approve a person's permanent resident status.

The case will be heard again in the Court of Appeal on Friday.

From TODAY, News – Wednesday, 16-Sep-2009

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Nearly-completed Shanghai high-rise falls over

This early fall means no matter the disaster, it still saved a lot of other unspeakable disasters – were it have been already occupied…

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Posted: 28 June 2009 1434 hrs

The collapsed 13-floor residential building which was under construction in Shanghai, China

SHANGHAI: A nearly-completed 13-storey Shanghai apartment building toppled over, killing a worker and raising concerns in China's largest city over construction standards, state media reported Sunday.

Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng ordered a full investigation into the cause of the incident, which occurred Saturday in the southwestern part of the city, the Shanghai Daily reported.

"It was horrible. The building fell down very quickly after several workers ran out of it," Fang Zenghui, whose home faces the building from across the creek, was quoted as telling the newspaper.

"It was very loud. I was stunned and couldn't believe what I'd just seen," he said.

A 28-year-old migrant worker, surnamed Xiao, who entered the building to collect his tools, was killed after trying to jump out of a window as the building fell, the newspaper reported.

About 130 nearby households were evacuated and inspectors were examining the foundations of seven other identical buildings in the "Lotus Riverside" compound, saying they appeared to be intact Saturday evening, the report said.

The incident was a new blow for Chinese property developers, who have been severely hit by a sagging market amid the global financial crisis.

Those who bought apartments in the development were demanding refunds and explanations, the report said.

Developer Shanghai Meidu Real Estate and Shanghai Zhongxin Construction Co said they were contacting owners and negotiating refunds, the newspaper said, adding 77 per cent of the homes had been sold.

The building fell Saturday morning a day after about 83 metres (272 feet) of the nearby riverbank collapsed, apparently due to the construction of an underground parking garage being built on the site, the report said.

Construction company employees had been working through the night Friday to shore up the riverbank, the report said.

Concerns over poor construction and low-quality materials have plagued China's construction industry as the country rapidly builds up its cities and infrastructure needed to maintain its growing economy.

Anger over poor construction boiled over during after last year's earthquake in central China after about 7,000 schools collapsed and relatives of dead children spoke out against graft they believed led to shoddy construction.

- AFP/yb

From ChannelNewsAsia.com; see the source article here.

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China's ships idle but Shanghai port charges ahead

Posted: 28 June 2009 1457 hrs

Yangshan deep water port in Hangzhou Bay, south east of Shanghai.

SHANGHAI: The scene where Shanghai's river meets the sea is a snapshot of China's battle against the financial crisis - as well as the site of the port the country hopes can set the stage for the next boom.

Empty container ships - victims of China's export collapse - line the river banks in Shanghai's port.

Meanwhile, bulk carriers laden with raw materials - a bet on demand rebounding - wait at sea because ports cannot unload them fast enough.

"Just look at the Huangpu River," a shipping company dispatcher said, referring to the waterway that cuts through Shanghai. "There used to be a few ships anchored on the river but now you can see anchored ships everywhere."

"Charter rates are so low now we would rather anchor the ships and save the cost of crew and fuel," the dispatcher for state-run Shanghai Puhai Shipping Co. said on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to speak to reporters.

World shipping prices in the past week were down about 68 per cent from a historic peak in May last year, according to the Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which gauges international dry bulk good shipping prices.

Low shipping rates combined with weak commodity prices sparked a Chinese buying spree of iron ore and other commodities that has led to jams of bulk carrier traffic at Chinese ports.

But that has not offset volume lost due to seven straight months of plummeting exports, which were down 26.4 per cent year-on-year in May.

The volume handled at Shanghai's port was down 15 per cent in the first five months of 2009 after nearly a decade of 20 per cent annual growth, Shanghai International Port Group Vice President Huang Xin said this past week.

"This is the first time Shanghai's shipping container business declined since it went into full-scale operation (20 years ago), it shows how deeply the financial crisis has affected the real economy," Huang told a maritime conference in Shanghai.

Chinese shipbuilders fared even worse, with orders plunging 96 per cent to 1.18 million deadweight tons in the first five months of the year compared to the same period last year, according to government figures.

"This will be the worst year ever for the container port industry in terms of volume decline," Truong Bui, a consultant at Drewery Maritime Services said. "China's container traffic will not recover until 2011."

Despite the plunge in shipping demand, Shanghai - already the world's busiest port by total cargo volume - is charging ahead with plans initiated during boom times to more than double its capacity.

China's cabinet set ambitions for Shanghai even higher in April, declaring it would move up the value chain and become a full-service world-class shipping centre by 2020.

But building the infrastructure will be easier than developing the service side of that equation, Xu Jianqun, Shanghai's Construction and Transport Commission Secretary General, warned.

"We lack the related 'software' in terms of ship financing, reinsurance for ships and arbitration," Xu told the same conference. "This leaves Shanghai lagging behind other developed port cities in the world."

The centrepiece of its expansion will be the Yangshan Deepwater Port, which connects to the mainland via a 32.5-kilometre (20-mile) bridge.

Shanghai also plans to build the world's biggest shipbuilding yard on its northern Changxing island and put in place rail lines to better link the port to industrial powerhouse regions, Xu said.

On the services side, the Bank of Communications, part-owned by HSBC and China's fifth-largest bank, announced last month plans to create a ship financing division.

Some argue the need for the extra capacity is debatable but Torben Skaanild, chief executive of the Baltic and International Maritime Council, said Shanghai's moves come as the shipping industry faces a historic shift.

"The timing is probably absolutely perfect. There has been a shift in ship-owning towards the East and Asia," Skaanild said. "But there will be stiff competition because Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Korea are not going to let Shanghai stand alone."

- AFP/yb

From ChannelNewsAsia.com; see the source article here.

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US and China set for defence talks on NKorea

Posted: 23 June 2009 1017 hrs

People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers stand at attention

BEIJING: US defence officials were set for talks in China on Tuesday in which they will seek Beijing's support for world pressure on North Korea over its nuclear weapons and missile programmes.

The US military delegation, led by Michele Flournoy, undersecretary for defence, was to meet with officials from the Chinese defence ministry as part of the two-day talks.

"North Korea will factor in very strongly," a Pentagon official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters in Washington over the weekend.

Pyongyang's recent nuclear test and missile launches have raised "great concern" in China, he said.

"We would hope that China would use whatever influence they have with North Korea to convince them to change their behaviour," the official said.

The UN Security Council adopted a resolution on June 12 that includes financial sanctions on North Korea after Pyongyang carried out its second nuclear test last month and several missile launches.

North Korea has reacted defiantly to the latest sanctions, vowing to build more nuclear bombs.

Flournoy will also seek to promote better US-China defense cooperation amid concerns in Washington over Beijing's expanding military and a series of stand-offs on the high seas.

Washington would like to see more high-level visits by Chinese defense officials to the United States "so we can understand their continuing buildup and make sure the conditions for stability and peace are maintained," the official said.

- AFP/yt

From ChannelNewsAsia.com; see the source article here.

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US boosts Hawaii defense to counter North Korea threat

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06/19/2009 | 10:51 AM

SEOUL, South Korea — The United States has deployed anti-missile defenses around Hawaii amid reports that North Korea may fire its most advanced ballistic missile toward the US islands early next month, adding to already high tensions in the region.

A report in a Japanese newspaper said Pyongyang might test-fire its Taepodong-2 toward Hawaii around the US holiday of Independence Day. North Korea test-fired a similar long-range missile on July 4 three years ago, but it failed seconds after liftoff.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the additional defenses around Hawaii consist of a ground-based mobile missile system and a radar system nearby. Together they could shoot an incoming missile in mid air.

"Without telegraphing what we will do, I would just say ... we are in a good position, should it become necessary, to protect Americans and American territory," Gates told reporters in Washington on Thursday.

A new missile launch — though not expected to reach US territory — would be a brazen slap in the face of the international community, which punished North Korea with new UN sanctions for conducting a second nuclear test on May 25 in defiance of a UN ban.

North Korea spurned the UN Security Council resolution with threats of war and pledges to expand its nuclear bomb-making program.

The Security Council resolution calls on all 192 UN member states to inspect vessels on the high seas — with the owner country's approval — if they believe the cargo contains banned weapons.

In what would be the first test case for the sanctions, the US military has begun tracking a North Korean-flagged ship, Kang Nam, which left a port in North Korea on Wednesday, two US officials said.

The ship, which may be carrying illicit weapons, was in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of China on Thursday, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they were discussing intelligence.

It was uncertain what the Kang Nam was carrying, but it has been involved in weapons proliferation before, one of the officials said.

The missile now being readied in the North is believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles (6,500 kilometers), and would be launched from North Korea's Dongchang-ni site on the northwestern coast sometime around July 4, the Yomiuri newspaper said.

It cited an analysis by Japan's Defense Ministry and intelligence gathered by US reconnaissance satellites.

It speculated the missile could fly over Japan and toward Hawaii, but would not be able to hit Hawaii's main islands, which are about 4,500 miles (7,200 kilometers) from the Korean peninsula.

A spokesman for the Japanese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report. South Korea's Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service — the country's main spy agency — said they could not confirm it.

Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs are centerpieces of the regime's catalog of weapons of mass destruction.

But the impoverished nation, which has put most of its scarce resources into boosting its military capabilities under its "army-first" policy, also has a large chemical arsenal, as well as capabilities to produce biological weapons.

On Thursday, an international security think tank warned that North Korea's chemical weapons are no less serious a threat to the region than its nuclear arsenal.

The independent International Crisis Group said the North is believed to have between 2,500 and 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including mustard gas, phosgene, blood agents and sarin. These weapons can be delivered with ballistic missiles and long-range artillery and are "sufficient to inflict massive civilian casualties on South Korea."

"If progress is made on rolling back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, there could be opportunities to construct a cooperative diplomatic solution for chemical weapons and the suspected biological weapons program," the think tank said in a report.

It also called on the US to engage the North in dialogue to defuse the nuclear crisis, saying "diplomacy is the least bad option." It said Washington should be prepared to send a high-level special envoy to Pyongyang to resolve the tension. - AP

From GMANews.tv; see the source article here.

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