All things that I learn, primarily as a leader, but also as a follower. Top-down and bottom-up, there are always insights on leadership that we learn from time to time. Learn with me. (Well, I'm including a bit of business and property items...)
WITH women a minority in the upper echelons of companies in Singapore, nearly half feel that they will not reach a senior management position, a survey of women in the finance and accounting sector revealed.
Add to that the desire for work-life balance — the priority for 59 per cent of the respondents — and that 53 per cent of the women will leave their jobs for one with lesser pay in order to achieve it, it’s a worrying insight for the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA). Women make up 66 per cent of its 9,000 members.
Given the accounting and finance industry’s long hours, women choosing to exit the industry would drain it of much-needed talent, said ACCA country head Penelope Phoon-Cohen.
“The work-life balance situation has to improve (if we want to retain talent),” saidMs Phoon-Cohen, speaking on the survey results at a media briefing yesterday.
Women in accounting, she added, tend to leave the industry because of family commitments.
The survey by recruitment firm Robert Half Singapore and ACCA — which collected over 700 responses in March — found that 39 per cent of the women surveyed did not see women in their companies’ board of directors.
In addition, nearly half the respondents said their companies had formal equal opportunity or diversity policies, while 32 per cent said their companies’ did not have any, and 21 percent were not aware if their companies’ had one at all.
Employers need to do more about this, said Robert Half managing director Tim Hird, as a lack of formal policy means a lack of security and reassurance to employees on their career development policies.
While the survey showed that employers needed to do more to formalise and communicate policies assuring employees of equal opportunities, Mr Hird also felt that women should be more vocal about their workplace needs.
“We’ve seen women who want to leave their companies because they said they wanted more work-life balance, but they don’t actually know about the opportunities (to do so) in their companies,” he said.
Women may hesitate to bring up work-life needs in the current economic climate for fear of appearing unproductive.
However, open communication is necessary in order to avoid “grey areas”, whether it is work-life needs left unmet, or women feeling that they lack the opportunity to move up, said Mr Hird.
From TODAYOnline.com, News – Friday, 22-May-2009; see the source article here.
NEW YORK: Oil prices retreated on Thursday, in line with global equities, as investors cashed in profits ahead of a US holiday weekend from a rally that had pushed prices beyond 62 dollars per barrel.
New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in July, fell 99 cents from Wednesday's close to 61.05 dollars a barrel.
London's Brent North Sea crude for July delivery shed 66 cents to settle at 59.93 dollars per barrel.
Traders were prudent after weaker-than-expected unemployment data clouded the outlook for economy recovery in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer. Some market players were getting an early start on the Memorial Day weekend that includes a holiday on Monday.
"With the market as overbought as it currently is, a breather before an important holiday weekend is probably in order," said Mike Fitzpatrick of MF Global.
He said that the market was digesting a Labour Department report on Thursday which underscored concerns that rising unemployment could derail recovery.
The department reported that new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 631,000 in the past week, slightly worse than expected by most analysts.
Continuing claims for jobless benefits rose by 75,000, pushing the insured unemployment rate to 5.0 percent, the highest level since December 1982.
Fitzpatrick said that the current oil price rally was more "an expression of hope, rather than a reflection of reality."
New York crude oil had rocketed to six-month highs of 62.26 dollars on Wednesday after data showed a fall in key US oil inventories.
US crude reserves tumbled 2.1 million barrels in the week ending May 15, far more than market expectations for a 700,000 barrel drop.
This indicated that energy demand was holding firm despite a deep recession in the United States, the world's biggest economy and the largest oil consumer.
Oil hit record highs above 147 dollars last July before the global financial crisis accelerated in the final months of 2008, pushing the world economy into recession.
Analysts at Barclays Capital see firmer oil prices ahead.
"While daily fluctuations within this newfound trading range are likely to persist, the momentum in prices is broadly higher, and we expect further price upside through the remainder of the year, as global oil balances turn constructive," they said in a note to clients. - AFP/de
Oil rigs extract petroleum in the Los Angeles area community of Culver City, California. Oil prices jumped to a six-month high above 60 dollars on Tuesday on growing signs of economic recovery amid concerns about unrest in African crude producer Nigeria, traders said.
LONDON (AFP) - - Oil prices jumped to a six-month high above 60 dollars Tuesday on growing signs of economic recovery amid concerns about unrest in African crude producer Nigeria, traders said.
New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in June, rallied to 60.48 dollars a barrel -- a level last seen on November 10. The contract later stood at 59.90 dollars, up 87 cents from Monday's close.
Brent North Sea crude for July delivery touched a six-month high of 59.65 dollars a barrel before pulling back to 59.05 dollars, up 58 cents from Monday.
"Gains in the stock market increased optimism that the global economy is recovering," said BetOnMarkets analyst David Evans.
Global equity markets posted fresh gains Tuesday on hopes that the global economy is through the worst of its slump, setting the stage for a pick-up in energy demand, dealers said.
In early afternoon stock market trading in Europe, Frankfurt rallied 2.03 percent, Paris gained 0.82 percent and London climbed 0.61 percent.
In Asia, Hong Kong added 3.06 percent, Tokyo put on 2.78 percent, Seoul advanced 2.99 percent, Sydney added 2.19 percent and Taipei gained 1.18 percent.
Oil jumped by around two and a half dollars on Monday as traders tracked prospects of a global economic recovery, rising shares on Wall Street and developments in Nigera.
New York share prices shot higher Monday after better-than-expected earnings from home improvement retailer Lowe's helped reinforce hopes for a recovery in the United States.
A strong US economy is a key growth engine for the world because it is a major export market for many countries -- and is the biggest energy consuming nation on the planet.
Prices were also boosted by rising violence in oil exporter Nigeria, where the country's main armed group said it had ordered a blockade of key shipping channels in a bid to inflict further damage on the energy industry. Nigeria's military has urged oil firms to ignore the threat.
"Fresh violence in Nigeria helped to support prices," said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov. "Militants there claimed to have sabotaged two pipelines, while threatening more supply disruptions."
Unrest in the oil-producing Niger Delta region has reduced Nigeria's daily output to 1.76 million barrels compared with 2.6 million barrels in January 2006.
This is something to post in my Leadership Learning blog… my say? When this evolution comes, old skin has to be moulted out, for the growth to take place properly… that's when there will be some political unrest, civil disobedience, civil wars… name them, and they will come. Up to what magnitude, who knows? It will come, I tell you, it will come…
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Channel NewsAsia - Wednesday, May 20
Analysts agree Singapore's political system will evolve to adapt to changing needs
SINGAPORE: Analysts said Singapore's political system will have to change to adapt with the times. They were responding to President S R Nathan's opening address in Parliament on Monday evening.
Observers said it will also be an increasingly uphill task to find new leaders who can serve the growing demands of Singaporeans.
The recent AWARE incident is just one example of how Singaporeans who feel strongly about an issue can come together and bring about change, according to political analyst, Professor Bilveer Singh.
He cited other examples such as the NKF issue and people responding to the actions of Singapore Table Tennis Association President, Lee Bee Wah, after the table tennis coach incident.
He said that Singaporeans are not politically innocent and can be mobilised to act in a group if there's a strong catalyst in the form of an economic or social issue — for example, a widening income gap or if more companies are hiring foreigners over Singaporeans.
Professor Bilveer said while the government is aware such changes are coming, it would prefer things to take place more gradually.
Analysts also agreed with President S R Nathan that Singapore needs to induct fresh leaders in touch with the new generation. But they also pointed out that the same leaders would also have to meet the needs of older Singaporeans.
Davin Chor, assistant professor, economics, Singapore Management University, said: "There will be a lot of competing needs. These new leaders have to be very cautious in order to serve the country better. There's also the issue of the country having more foreign—born Singaporeans who are becoming naturalised. What are their priorities, what are their interests?"
Economically, analysts said the schemes to help Singaporeans upgrade skills and the Jobs Credit scheme are likely to be around for a while as it will take some time for the economy to recover. — CNA/vm
VOLKSWAGEN AG, Europe’s largest car maker, called off talks with Porsche SE about a merger less than two weeks after the sports-car manufacturer’s controlling families agreed to explore a merger.
“There is currently no atmosphere for constructive talks,” a Volkswagen spokeswoman said on Sunday.
In a statement, Porsche said while a meeting scheduled for yesterday had been cancelled, negotiations would resume. It did not give details.
Porsche workers were set to hold their first strike ever yesterday to protest against the merger plan, Focus magazine reported.
The Porsche and Piech families, which together control half of Porsche, agreed on May 6 to create an “integrated” carmaker that would put Porsche alongside VW brands including Skoda and Audi.
Talks to hash out details of a merger are on hold after VW Supervisory BoardChairmanFerdinand Piech said on May 11 that VW would not help “solve” Porsche’s financial problem and that Porsche must trim its ‚9 billion ($17.8 billion) in net debt. BLOOMBERG
At Tyco, we encourage good work-life balance and place a keen interest in our employees’ personal goals and pursuits. Demands at work can lead to spending an unhealthy amount of time at the office, away from friends and family, which is not good in the long run. It is important to be effective at work, so that you can spend more time with others for the things you enjoy doing together. Having a healthy personal life and fun interests clears your mind, and also aids in managing anxiety and stress — common factors that we see affecting employee performance and satisfaction.
IN THE past fortnight, 15 people have presented me with problems that need only a change of mindset to solve.
The problems themselves have been varied — many to do with career, some with business going wrong in what I call “The Reckless Recession”, a few about relationships that have found the strain of uncertainty tearing them apart and leaving them nowhere to go. One mentee has a unique problem: Too much work brought on by other people losing their jobs.
All these troubles get worse when they are not attended to quickly and forcefully. The killer is uncertainty. Almost any positive action will help to put the problem into perspective. No problem will be solved without one key condition: Focus.
What does it mean? Single-minded, undistracted, concentrated attention to thinking about a problem until you reach a solution.
If it is that simple, why doesn’t everyone do it? Because what is simple to understand is often difficult to implement. So it is with Focus.
The big trap on the road to concentration is distraction. We become very clever at distracting ourselves from the truly important. Have you ever noticed that the person with very little to do is invariably busy whereas the desperately busy person always has time to help? That is because the busy have to think through their priorities. The less busy usually do not, so they pick up and put down task after task, never completing one before going on to the next.
When Sir Paul Chambers was chairman of ICI, then a big company employing about 126,000 people, I had dinner with him and asked him how he managed the vast mail he received every day. He told me that about two-thirds of it was removed by his two competent personal assistants before it got to him. That still left an awful lot of letters. He glanced at each of them, putting them into two piles: Those he thought there was probably an answer to and those he thought were unanswerable. The first pile he put in his “Out” tray.
“If I thought I knew there was an answer,” he said, “someone else would also know the answer. I don’t know what happens to that pile; my secretary takes it away and gives it to those she thinks can deal with it. I am then left with about seven or eight letters — the unanswerable. Since I am chairman, I regard those as my job.”
A GOOD LESSON IN PRIORITISATION
Focus depends on identifying the most important matter at hand, dealing with it and ignoring any distracting matters. When you see someone drowning you do not start to rewrite the rules for using the swimming pool, you try to rescue them. Similarly, when you are out of work, you do not take a rest and contemplate your naval; you get busy and look for another job.
In businesses with difficulties, I find many small and medium enterprises endlessly discussing their internal systems or relationships when what they need are clients. Trouble is, getting business is hard work while gossiping about your colleagues is fun.
Some of you will know my story of The Tree on the other side of the Field. This applies to many situations beyond just establishing or improving a career. Finding the objective and determinedly aiming for it means focusing, whatever the problem or opportunity being addressed.
For those, like myself, who are easily distracted, a written priority list is a help. I tease myself into dealing with the impossible by promising myself the fun of the easy matters later.
It is a small word, Focus. When applied, it is the most effective tool we have.
John Bittleston mentors people in business, career and their personal lives at www.TerrificMentors.com.
No thanks to shaky economic conditions, JTC Corp has scrapped a tender seeking an operator for its underground rock cavern oil storage project and plans to reissue it around 2013. This is ‘due to the shift in the timelines of downstream projects on Jurong Island’, said a JTC spokeswoman. Today understands that some energy players — which are potential customers of the facility — have been delaying their own projects amid the downturn. JTC said it planned to re-issue the operating tender ‘nearer the completion of the first two caverns’, which date is scheduled to be 2013. The entire project, consisting of five caverns, is expected to be completed in 2014. Photo courtesy JTC
THE 20- to 30-per-cent rally in Asian property stocks in the past few months is not sustainable, say experts, who believe prices are likely to fall further for most markets in the months ahead.
Henderson Global Investors thinks the current rally in property counters is not being backed by fundamentals.
“In the physical property market, values are clearly falling in most, if not all, markets,” said Mr Patrick Sumner, head of Property Securities at Henderson Global Investors. He believes there is a strong chance property values in Asia could fall further if banks that have been holding back on forced-selling of distressed assets bring them onto the market.
“You have quite a large volume of properties which are not being sold. If the banks actually start forcing the sales of these properties, they would make their own balance sheets look rather shaky. I think it will take some time for the whole market to clear at a price that both sellers and buyers find satisfactory,” said Mr Sumner.
According to Henderson, the recent rally in property securities has been driven by positive sentiment in the equity markets.
But property developers suggest there are signs that the property market is turning positive, based on sales volumes, and that could provide some support for property stocks ahead.
Yanlord, a high-end property developer based in China, said certain segments of the Chinese real estate market are showing signs of recovery.
“We have seen our transaction volumes increase from about 200 million yuan in November and December last year to 1 billion yuan ($215 million) in March this year,” said Ms Michelle Sze, head of Investor Relations at Yanlord.
Mr Justin Chiu, executive director of Hong Kong developer Cheung Kong Holdings, said the time is ripe to look for opportunities in the real estate sector.
“As real estate fluctuates in tandem with economic cycles, the current downtrend in Asia has opened up opportunities for favourable entry,” he said.
He believes the best opportunities are likely to be found in markets like Hong Kong, Singapore and, in particular, China.
As for the Singapore property market, developer CapitaLand is seeing a medium-term rebound for the high-end segment, especially with Singapore trying to attract top foreign talent.
“Singapore aims to become a global city focusing on wealth management, high-end talent and lifestyle. Does this strategy have legs? I, for one, am very confident,” said Mr Olivier Lim, group chief financial officer at CapitaLand.
For more on this story and other investment-related topics, catch Money Mind this Sunday at 9.30pm on Channel NewsAsia.
The Bank of England in London in 2008. The outlook for British economic growth and inflation is "unusually uncertain," the Bank of England said when it presented its latest quarterly assessment of the economy.
LONDON (AFP) - - Britain's recession-hit economy likely faces a 'slow' recovery, Bank of England head Mervyn King said on Wednesday after the BoE said the outlook for British growth and inflation is "unusually uncertain."
"The economy will eventually heal, but the process may be slow," Governor King told reporters after the Bank of England published its latest quarterly forecasts.
"There are pretty solid reasons for supposing that there will be a recovery next year, but also pretty solid reasons for questioning if that will be sustained," he added.
The Bank of England said in its report that "the prospects for economic growth remain unusually uncertain, reflecting the exceptional economic and financial factors affecting the outlook."
It also suggested that the British economy would return to growth early next year. The British pound slumped against the euro and dollar following the report as dealers said the outlook indicated that Britain would not see a rise in interest rates any time soon.
"The Bank of England are not buying the 'it's all over' mood (for the global recession) that seems to be sweeping over investors and market pundits," said ING Financial Markets economist Rob Carnell.
"The key phrase in their latest inflation report was 'It is more likely than not, that CPI inflation will be below the two percent target in the medium term' which indicates that there will be no end to the current policy of credit easing any time soon, and that rates will be kept low for the foreseeable future," he added.
Last week, the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at a record-low 0.5 percent as Britain battles its sharpest slowdown in 30 years.
It agreed also to pump out another 50 billion pounds (75 billion dollars) of new money to boost bank lending following the crippling credit crunch.
The move to increase the new money supply to 125 billion pounds to boost bank lending is a form of monetary policy known as 'quantitative easing' or QE.
Under QE, the British central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks in the hope that the institutions will use the money to lend once again to businesses and individuals.
Jonathan Loynes, an analyst at Capital Economics, said the BoE's report injected a "sensible element of caution" amid recent talk about "green shoots" of economic recovery.
"Although the Bank still predicts a reasonably solid recovery in GDP growth next year, it has pulled its forecasts down a bit from February and warned that a sustained recovery could take some time to arrive.
"This appears at least partly to reflect a gloomier view on the outlook for bank lending," he added.
The Bank of England's key aim is to keep British annual inflation close to a government-set target rate of 2.0 percent.
British 12-month consumer price inflation (CPI) slowed to 2.9 percent in March owing to sliding gas, housing and transport costs, according to recent official data.
Corporate woes rise as Asia reels from crisis: IMF
WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The global financial crisis is taking an increasing toll on Asia's corporate sector with the region's economies now among the world's hardest hit, a senior IMF official warned Tuesday.
"Corporate risks are rising and market indicators are flashing warning signs," IMF deputy managing director Takatoshi Kato said.
"There are signs that even the best Asian corporate 'names' are being rationed out of financial markets and are considering approaching their government for direct assistance," he told the annual meeting of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, a regional think tank, in Washington.
Large Asian firms, like their US counterparts, entered the crisis with strong balance sheets and when the demand shock hit, they faced little immediate pressure to scale back their activities or cut costs, he said.
"However, liquidity positions have since dwindled."
Kato said the global economic downturn is hitting Asia more severely than other regions with fourth quarter data showing a decline in output of nearly 15 percent in Asia, excluding China and India.
Many small and medium-sized enterprises, he said, were also suffocating under the weight of the global crisis, which stemmed from a US home mortgage meltdown that triggered financial turmoil and slammed the brakes on growth.
The firms borrowed heavily during the previous decade to expand their activities as suppliers to larger manufacturing groups but with the onset of the crisis, banks immediately started to rein in lending to these firms, Kato said.
Bad corporate loans were also expected to taint bank balance sheets in Asia.
"The feedback loop between the financial and real sectors is expected to play out," Kato said.
"Given the likely prolonged nature of the downturn, non-performing loans are likely to rise. This will feed into bank balance sheets."
Kato said large Asian corporations would need to further cut production if the credit crunch combined with a sharp fall in demand put healthy companies into trouble and scuttled profits.
Predicting that the region could see a wave of consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, he said firms were only now beginning to adjust employment levels.
"In the near-term, the process may prove quite painful, particularly if large job losses are involved," he said.
"Already, unemployment has started to climb across the region and potentially high social costs from this downturn are a looming threat."
Kato said that as financial activity worldwide shrunk, Asia's financial centers "have also been broadsided."
Citing Hong Kong, the special administration region of China, he said its financial system was "contracting," particularly in areas such as asset management and brokerage services.
In Singapore, lending to non-bank customers has been contracting recently in the Asian Dollar Market, he said.
In Japan, stricter lending standards, wider risk spreads, and the significant stock market declines have tightened financial conditions, he said.
Kato also noted that private investment in most Asian countries had slowed significantly and warned about a slowdown in private consumption as well.
"Although private consumption so far has shown relative resilience, falling incomes and tighter financial conditions foreshadow a slowdown ahead."
On the whole, Kato said the current recession in the region promised to be "deeper and more prolonged" compared to previous cycles.
RIYADH (AFP) - - French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said Saturday that it would be good if oil prices settled at between 70 and 80 dollars a barrel.
"We want less volatility, more predictability," Lagarde said ahead of talks on Sunday with oil giant Saudi Arabia's petroleum minister Ali Naimi.
"Most people would agree that anywhere between 70 and 80 dollars would be good," she said.
Lagarde was on a 24 hour visit to the Saudi capital for discussions on a range of bilateral economic issues, including promoting France's high-speed rail expertise for the multi-billion-dollar Mecca-Medina rail project, and fashioning cooperation on nuclear power technology.
Lagarde said that Saudi King Abdullah and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had earlier agreed to seek mechanisms to stabilize oil prices, after last year's climb to nearly 150 dollars a barrel and subsequent plunge to just 30 dollars.
However, she said, the possible mechanisms for that still need to be explored.
Oil prices topped 58 dollars a barrel in New York trading Friday, the highest since mid-November.
Lagarde, who will meet King Abdullah and other top economic officials Sunday, said she will also encourage Saudi Arabia to follow up on its pledge to contribute to the expanded capital of the IMF.
This follows the G20 agreement in London at the beginning of April to triple the IMF's funds to 750 billion dollars.
"We all have to contribute more," she said, noting that most of the G20 members had yet to confirm their contributions.
"In London all of us, including the Saudis, signed a commitment, so we have to deliver."
Lagarde said she would also discuss with her Saudi counterparts updating the French-Saudi tax treaty to address issues that had arisen since the treaty was first signed some 20 years ago.
THE Influenza A (H1N1) virus creeps closer to Singapore, with Thailand reporting two cases yesterday. And while no cases have been reported here so far, it will take a full year - as the virus evolves and moves from the northern to southern hemisphere and back again - before Singapore can "decide if we can relax", said Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan.
Yesterday, he unveiled his Ministry's three-part game plan for the coming weeks and months, while stressing the likelihood that "H1N1 is going to be here with us permanently; it may not simply disappear like Sars".
First, the Government is replenishing stocks of personal protective equipment, as well as Tamiflu and Relenza antiviral drugs - and the private sector is strongly urged to follow suit.
General practitioners (GPs) and companies who did not stock up on these essentials and had to scramble, "learnt the hard lesson of being caught unprepared" when Singapore moved to Orange alert two weeks ago, said Mr Khaw.
On the "grumbling" about a shortage of N95 masks and Tamiflu, Mr Khaw said GPs "are supposed to have stocked up during peacetime". They should, for that matter, take advantage of the window of respite now when stocks are more readily available.
Second, the Ministry of Health (MOH) will do a post-mortem and plug holes in its flu plan - particularly, the gaps in the response of the primary healthcare sector that were exposed by the H1N1 alert.
For example, the MOH will tighten its communications system with GPs by ironing out technical problems and getting their updated mobile numbers for SMS updates.
Third, teams of public health experts and scientists will be sent to "battle-scarred" affected countries in North America to study their experiences.
'Don't play with Singaporeans' lives'
What of recent suggestions that Singapore allow the virus to enter in order to build some herd immunity? Or to adopt an all-or-none approach in tackling the virus - quarantining all visitors from affected countries, for example?
The MOH does not consider countries like Spain and South Korea as affected countries because the human-to-human transmissions have not reached a sustained level of community spread, said Dr Lyn James, director of the MOH's communicable diseases division.
The five deaths reported outside Mexico have been of people with underlying medical conditions, she noted.
Mr Khaw said that while it was okay to experiment with immunity as individuals or family units, he could not risk lives when there remains incomplete information about the virus.
"I don't think we should play around with Singaporeans' lives in such a casual manner," he said.
And as the world slowly uncovers more about H1N1, the public's focus "should not be over the number of new cases" but the severity of these cases, he said. "Do the patients develop complications, pneumonia, severe respiratory failure? Who are those that are vulnerable to developing complications, so that we can focus on treating them early?"
Singaporeans should also not be alarmed to see more people down with flu - the seasonal variety kills 600 here yearly - as flu season in Singapore peaks at mid-year and again at year-end. Mr Khaw gave the sombre reminder that we should "expect some deaths due to H1N1 at some stage".
"Last week, I did a house-to-house visit in Sembawang," recounted the Minister. When constituents were asked if H1N1 concerned them, "all said they were not worried" - a response that, in turn, made him "very worried".
"While I appreciate the confidence of my residents, such a high expectation that we can keep out H1N1 is unrealistic," he said, urging Singaporeans to maintain good personal hygiene and, if they are sick, to avoid crowded places and to see a doctor.
Meanwhile, life must go on: Families who are going on holidays abroad in June should avoid affected countries, check the Ministry's website for updates and take the usual "commonsensical precautions".
SINGAPORE, May 12, 2009 (AFP) - Oil prices dipped in Asian trade Tuesday, extending overnight falls as investors took profits following last week's rally, analysts said.
The market was also waiting for the weekly US energy inventory report for signs of strengthening demand in the world's biggest economy, which is reeling from a deep recession, they said.
BrentNorth Sea crude for delivery in June was down 42 cents to 57.07.
"This market seems to have found a bit of a comfort zone (at current price levels)," said Dave Ernsberger, a senior editorial director at energy information provider Platts.
"Traders are waiting for US inventory data."
The US Department of Energy is due to release its weekly report showing levels of crude stockpiles in the world's largest energy consumer on Wednesday.
Ernsberger said he expects the rally in oil prices to weaken as the ailing global economy will keep demand down.
"There's not much steam left in the rally. The market's done a lot in the short span of time, there's not much it can do in this economic environment," he said.
OPEC secretary general Abdalla Salem El-Badri said recently that the cartel wants to see crude at more than 70 dollars a barrel, as its members appeared divided on whether to further reduce output to support prices.
AFP - Wednesday, May 13LONDON (AFP) - - The price of New Yorkcrude oil surged above 60 dollars per barrel on Tuesday, hitting a six-month high on the back of the struggling US currency, traders said.
The euro soared above 1.37 dollars on Tuesday, hitting the highest level for one and a half months. A weak greenback stimulates demand for dollar-priced crude because it becomes cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies.
Picture of a drilling rig at the Vibora gas field, 800 km east of La Paz, Bolivia. The price of New York crude oil surged above 60 dollars per barrel, hitting a six-month high on the back of the struggling US currency.
WASHINGTON (AFP) - - US Treasury SecretaryTimothy Geithner has said that there is a risk that US economic recovery could take a long time, but vowed to take all necessary steps to speed it up.
"Well, that's the risk," Geithner said in a PBStelevision interview on Friday when asked if the recovery could take several years.
"I mean, people -- economists generally worry that a recession that comes after a long period where people borrowed too much, banks took on too much risk -- requires a slower, longer recovery, because people have to reduce debt, they're going to have to save more," the treasury secretary pointed out.
But he promised that the administration of President Barack Obama was "going to do everything" it can to accelerate the process.
"We're laying the foundation for a more sustainable, more balanced, more healthy recovery for this economy," Geithner noted.
By LAURAN NEERGAARD,AP Medical Writer AP - Sunday, May 10
WASHINGTON - The most pivotal moments in the swine flu saga are yet to come. Will it sweep through impoverished Southern Hemisphere countries in the next few months? Will it roar back in the rest of the world in the fall? And who will be vaccinated if it does?
In the weeks since swine flu grabbed international attention, and even years before that, some important actions have helped shape the course of this outbreak and the ways the world will handle future epidemics.
It's not clear if this new swine flu strain is a brush fire, sparking up around the globe only to fizzle, or if it will worsen when the regular influenza season hits.
No matter how this story ends, at the very least it has offered a real-world drill to find gaps in the playbook.
"We've been given an opportunity to take a look at this before it really got bad, and we need to," said Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, a prominent pandemic flu specialist. "We better damn well do it now because one day we are going to really be in it for more than a week. If it's not this virus, there will still be another one."
For this virus, the coming months will bring a series of big decisions: Do manufacturers start brewing millions of swine flu vaccine doses? Will they be stockpiled unless the new flu returns or given along with or soon after regular flu shots? Will rich countries share enough with the developing world? Who gets in line first _ the younger people that this strain so far seems to target or the elderly who usually are flu's most vulnerable?
"You may only have one chance to get out ahead of it," Dr. Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told The Associated Press. "It's important for people to understand that all of these decisions will need to be made with incomplete science."
THE FIRST TURNING POINT
A different virus was the world's wake-up call. SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) started in China, and once it broke out of the mainland in early 2003, it took just weeks to infect more than 8,000 people from 37 countries. The virus killed more than 770 people before it disappeared.
Governments started scrambling to put together plans to handle the next global disease threat. Soon after, bird flu hit Asia, reinforcing the need.
Had the new swine flu hit sooner, before all that pandemic planning, it almost certainly would have spread faster. Even if it proves no more dangerous than garden-variety flu, that's deadly enough; a pandemic is more about geography than super-lethality. By the World Health Organization's tally, between 250,000 and 500,000 people worldwide die each year because of regular winter flu.
UNCOVERING THIS THREAT
As early as February, people in the Mexican hamlet of La Gloria were suffering unusually strong flu symptoms. When officials arrived to investigate in mid-March, nearly half the 3,000 villagers came out seeking medical help. About 450 were diagnosed with acute respiratory infections and given antibiotics. Mexico was investigating, but not until April 12 would the outside world _ the CDC and Pan American Health Organization _ start getting official word of the unexplained illness that eventually would be blamed for dozens of deaths throughout Mexico.
By then CDC already was on the trail of swine flu in California. The virus had spread before anyone knew it existed.
Preparation had paid off. In its pandemic planning, the U.S. starting in 2005 put money into researching better influenza detection. Studies of new methods found two unrelated children in San Diego with a strain of Type A influenza that turned out to be a never-before-seen type of swine flu. Puzzled, CDC announced the cases and started hunting more. On April 23, the agency confirmed five more illnesses in California and Texas and put all states on alert.
"At what point does unusual become concerning and at what point does concern lead to action?" Besser said. "We had to make that call."
That same day, CDC and a Canadian lab that Mexico had consulted delivered the bad news: The new flu was in Mexico, too.
Could Mexico have signaled a problem sooner? The Pan American Health Organization dismisses the question as one for historians.
"We would have done everything the same if we had it to do over again," said Hugo Lopez-Gatell Ramirez, deputy director of Mexico's Intelligence Unit for Health Emergencies.
AGGRESSIVE ACTION
With the diagnosis, Mexico's government immediately ordered the closure of all schools, museums, libraries and theaters in Mexico City. The following days brought increasingly drastic actions. Schools nationwide and other businesses shut down, streets mostly emptied and soldiers handed out millions of face masks.
With a handful of known illnesses at first, the U.S. raced antiflu drugs from a government stockpile _ enough for 11 million people _ out to every state. After a large outbreak at a New York City school, apparently spread by students who vacationed in Mexico, U.S. schools started closing. Ultimately about 468,000 students around the country were affected before the CDC decided that schools should reopen because the virus was mild.
Overall, "what happened was not overreaction. It was a prudent response," said Michael Leavitt, the Bush administration health secretary who led development of the U.S. pandemic flu plan and advised other governments on theirs. "If imminent information about terrorism is known to authorities, they need to react. A pandemic is sort of nature's terrorist."
Young children tend to be initial spreaders of regular winter flu, taking it home to family and friends, which is one reason that school closings are included in pandemic plans. But in this case, travelers were early spreaders.
"I'm not saying that was the right approach or the wrong approach, but what we've learned is we need to be proportionate in our response with what the risk is in our community," said flu specialist Osterholm.
PANDEMIC OR NOT
The World Health Organization, following its post-SARS guidelines, declared an international emergency the day after Mexico's outbreak made headlines, to spur countries to check where else the new flu had spread _ eventually to two dozen countries and counting.
Days later, the WHO issued an unprecedented warning: The world was close to a full-fledged pandemic. Sustained spread in regions beyond North America, rather than smallish outbreaks, would tip the scale.
For years, the U.S. had run drills. What would it do if bird flu started rapidly spreading in Asia? Close the borders to buy a little time. Reality brought a surprise.
The new swine flu started in North America, too late to close any borders. While the U.S. joined other countries in discouraging travel to hardest-hit Mexico, and some nations discouraged travel to the U.S. and Canada, too, once flu starts spreading in numerous places, such actions have little effect.
Asia remained largely untouched. China, no doubt recalling the harrowing days of SARS, tried to keep it that way by quarantining dozens of Mexicans for days.
STILL TO COME
What happens to all those antiflu medicines that were shipped to U.S. states but not used? They're waiting, under guard, in case they're needed come fall. Leavitt, the former health secretary, said that's the next weakness. Flying in drugs is easy; getting them to the sick is hard.
"The further into a pandemic you get, the more spontaneity that's required and the more lack of preparation reveals itself," he said.
Then there's the vaccine dilemma.
Makers could be told to start brewing doses in a few weeks. But that will take months and require testing, led by the U.S., of initial shots to see if they induce immunity, with one dose or two, and seem safe. The last mass vaccination against a different swine flu, in the U.S. in 1976, was marred by reports of a paralyzing side effect _ and that time the flu didn't return.
"One of the lessons of the '76 experience is to take account of the uncertainty," said Institute of Medicine President Harvey Fineberg. "Be able to take account of new information to modify your course."
If vaccine is ordered, would developing countries get a fair share? The WHO is calling vaccine makers together in late May to push for fair access. Regardless, any shots will come too late for the Southern Hemisphere, where influenza season is about to start.
World authorities will closely track the new swine flu there, for help deciding whether to order vaccinations for the rest of the world starting in the fall. The big worry is that the virus will mutate, becoming more severe.
"The thing that's keeping me up at night right now is that feeling of dodging the bullet, in the sense that people are taking a sigh of relief too soon," the CDC's Besser told the AP.
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Leadership. Management. All things that I learn, primarily as a leader, but also as a follower. Top-down and bottom-up, there are always insights on leadership that we learn from time to time. Is a Manager a Leader? Or is a Leader a Manager? Learn with me. (Well, I'm including a bit of business and property items, too...)
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